interplanetary disturbances and effects on ground and patterns of statistical analysis

Title: interplanetary disturbances and effects on ground and patterns of statistical analysis Author: Zhang Ying Degree-granting units: Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Space Science and Applied Research Center) Keywords: co-transfected with the interaction region (CIR);; Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) / flares;; interplanetary shock;; forecasting methods;; storm Abstract: Solar transient activities such as solar flares, Neodymium Magnets coronal mass ejections (CME) and radio bursts, as well as coronal hole high speed solar wind stream is empty
The main driving source between the weather, is caused by interplanetary disturbances and the corresponding main geomagnetic disturbances on the Sun-Earth space environment is important
Impact. This Jiezhu numerical simulation and statistical analysis of a combination of methods of solar activity, interplanetary disturbances and geomagnetic disturbances corresponding
Relevant and related prediction methods were studied. Use Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry (HAF) solar wind model by more than
Time of the incident broke out over whether the simulation results, for the first time a distinction between solar cycle 23 (1996 ~ 2005) of three interplanetary structure: "pure"
- Total transfer interaction region (CIR), CIR and the interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) structure and the interaction of "pure"-ICME. In this base
CIR on the basis of geomagnetic activity to reproduce; CIR and shock, the relationship between a storm statistical analysis, the results are as follows: (1) in section 23 too
Yang Week CIR total of 157 incidents identified, most of the incidents occurred in the fall phase. (2) weeks of the introduction of the adjacent Carrington Kp index of related
Coefficient (CCKCCR) to reflect the degree of reproducibility of geomagnetic activity. CCKCCR maximum relative decrease in solar activity, indicating that reproduction
Geomagnetic activity during this period are dominant. Coronal holes by analyzing the relationship between latitude and CCKCCR can be seen in the CIR model to reproduce
The important role of http://www.everbeenmagnet.com/en/products/110-sintered-neodymium-magnets magnetic activity. (3) at the 1AU, 41% of the CIR can form a shock wave, and more for the forward shock, the reason may be: relative to the back
King solar wind, before the shock is far from the sun, west and spread to the equator, then the shock is close to the sun, east and spread to the polar regions
, Thus 1AU near the ecliptic plane at the Wind, ACE satellite observations to more of a forward shock. (4) CIR shock caused by storms and not
Necessary connection, only 44% accompanied with shock. (5) When the time Dst index is greater than -100 nT, CIR-induced magnetic storms, the Dst index and the interplanetary
Magnetic field Bz, dawn-dusk electric field Ey, and the solar wind - magnetic energy coupling function (ε) has a good linear relationship. (6) As the sun relative to Earth and
The change of position, CIR's geomagnetic activity has a significant seasonal effect, in two points (vernal and autumnal equinox) near the strongest. These statistical results
If, for CIR geophysical effects of long-term forecasts provide an important reference. Established a number of forecast time of arrival of shock
New database method. Based on HAFv.1 mode, using a large number of virtual events shock transit time to build a database that includes: virtual
Position to be the source of the event, the initial shock wave velocity, the occurrence of the year and its corresponding transit time. Just enter the source location of the incident solar observation
, The initial shock wave velocity and corresponding with the first occurrence of 23 year solar cycle, you can quickly find in the database corresponding to the incident shock wave
Arrival time. For February 1997 to August 2002 among the 130 events in the history of shock prediction methods test the prediction that the database
Capacity and no less than STOA, ISPM, HAFv.2 model, which shows the model in real-time forecasting of space weather has the potential.
In addition, due to the cyclical nature of solar activity, we selected 23 other solar cycle events, try to use the database to forecast, but also
Get better prediction results. This indicates that the database method may also apply to other solar cycle. However, this method also has a database
Its shortcomings, such as the surface of the magnetic field without considering the source of short-term changes, resulting in large-scale heliospheric current sheet field configuration and solar wind structure
And so biased, so this method there is a certain prediction error. In addition, for simplicity, the method to other database too
Yang Zhou expansion has not been a good phase corresponds to the solar cycle. These factors will be considered in future work. Current
Work quickly to provide a shock time of arrival of the new forecasting method. Gives the arrival time of interplanetary shock prediction of two
Kinds of one-dimensional numerical model: one is based on one-dimensional fluid equations, using the Roe scheme set up shock disturbance propagation model (called
1D-HD model); the other is the use of space-time conservation element reconciliation yuan (CE / SE) method set up a one-dimensional magnetic fluid (MHD) shock wave propagation
Model (called 1D-MHD (CE / SE) model). Selected sample of some of the shock event, the shock reaches Earth's orbit around the propagation
Between the prediction and forecasting results with STOA, ISPM, HAFv.2 and SPM model results were compared. The results showed that the
Two models of prediction accuracy compared with other models is roughly equal. Both models show that the shock arrival time space weather forecasts
Have potential applications. Although these two models is a simple one-dimensional numerical model, but it can achieve rapid prediction shock arrival
The purpose of the time, but also through further improvements can expect to reach 1AU and the shock is given to determine the Earth's orbit. Degree Year: 2009